Death, taxes, and Patrick Mahomes airing it out. On Thursday night, in the season-opener vs. Baltimore, our NFL picks believe Mahomes will rack up the passing yards vs. a new-look Ravens defense.
Thursday Night Football features a pair of Super Bowl favorites going head-to-head at Arrowhead Stadium to start the 2024 NFL season, and we’ve got you covered with our top NFL player props for Kansas City Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes against the visiting Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
Despite winning it all and earning his third Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes didn’t have his flashiest regular season for the Chiefs last year. Still, our best NFL picks for Thursday’s season opener are calling for the KC QB to air it out to his improved receiving corps against a revamped Baltimore defense.
Patrick Mahomes TNF Player Prop Picks
Over 258.5 passing yards (-114)
Over 258.5 passing yards/2+ touchdown passes/Under 52.5 first-quarter passing yards (+539)
Patrick Mahomes TNF Prop Pick
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 258.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an outlier low total of 258.5 passing yards through FanDuel for Thursday’s season opener against the Baltimore Ravens. It’s a number he cleared in just 10 of 20 games last season, including the playoffs, but the offseason turnover for both the Chiefs offense and Ravens defense have me confident Mahomes and the KC passing attack will start hot.
Mahomes’ finished 2023 with a career-low 7.0 yards per target and a career-high 67.2 completion percentage, while the KC receiving corps also paced the NFL in drops. It resulted in the three-time Super Bowl champion finishing with the lowest aDoT (6.8) of his career and facilitating more of a dink-and-dunk offense than the stretch-the-field attack of years past.
The late-season emergence of wideout Rashee Rice, and the selection of speedster Xavier Worthy in the 2024 NFL Draft project to complement tight end Travis Kelce in keeping defenses honest. And, I also value running backs Isiah Pacheco and Samaje Perine both profiling as capable pass-catching options out of the backfield.
Additionally, Baltimore is going to look different – to a lot different – on defense this season. I’m not anticipating the Ravens’ stop unit falling off a cliff, but any team that loses pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Patrick Queen, and two contributors in the secondary (Geno Stone and Ronald Darby) is going to have an adjustment curve when the games start mattering. Of course, Zach Orr also takes over as the Baltimore defensive coordinator with Mike Macdonald taking over as the Seattle Seahawks head coach.
Finally, I also expect the Baltimore offense to be successful enough to keep Mahomes in a positive game script for this passing yards Over throughout Thursday’s game.
Patrick Mahomes TNF same-game parlay
275+ passing yards
2+ Passing Touchdowns
Under 52.5 first-quarter passing yards
+539 at FanDuel
We’re landing long odds on this same-game parlay because of the uncorrelated leg of Mahomes recording 52 or fewer first-quarter passing yards. I’m anticipating these two AFC powerhouses to lean on their respective ground games early and ease into Thursday’s opener, and there are also always multiple outs for an Under to hit – especially with this just a first-quarter leg. The Chiefs could be limited to a single offensive possession in the first quarter, or an early KC offensive turnover could also hold Mahomes’ in check, for example.
In addition to the positive regression ahead of Mahomes’ yardage numbers, he’s also set to have better touchdown and red-zone production this season. His 27 passing scores were another career-low mark last year, and he also attempted 10 fewer touchdown attempts in the red zone after recording an NFL-record 123 in 2022.
Finally, I also value the track record of Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid when equipped with ample preparation time. This will be the seventh Week 1 start for Mahomes, and he has at least two touchdowns in each of the previous six and 20 total.